Nine days from now the NBA All-Star weekend will begin, and we fans of the league will be subjected to a 3-day marathon of outrageous events ranging from the “meh”-inducing Skills Challenge to the (in the past couple of years anyway) main reason to pay mind to the star-studded show – the dunk contest. All of this culminates in a game that’s as meaningful in execution as are a handful of the participants that seem to make it into the game each year (See: Allen Iverson ’10, Tracy McGrady ’09, Iverson again in ’08...you get the idea). The All-Star game is as much about name recognition as it is about outrageous shot attempts and uncompetitiveness – features about the game this NBA fan personally detests. Alas, I recognize that it’s just a horse-and-pony show that’s used to showcase the league’s greatest players (and some that people still think are great), so I won’t let that get to me too much while I’m watching the game on Valentine’s Day.
Now, after getting that free promotion out there David Stern and his league of supernatural superstars, I feel the need to vent some about the league. I’m saying this now; there’s basketball talk ahead. I warned you.
1.) First and foremost, I want it to be known that over the summer I told several people that I thought the Oklahoma City Thunder would be a playoff team this season. As of this writing, they sit in the 8th spot in the Western Conference – the last team to make it in. However, they’re 6 games over .500 with a 27-21 record that could easily have included a higher number in the win column if a few missed shots had went in. Offensively the team ranks in the middle of the pack, but with the defensive numbers they’ve been putting up that isn’t too much of a problem. They’re 5th in the league in points scored against them (giving up 95.7 a game on average) and 4th in defensive field-goal percentage, with opponent’s only making 43.8% of the shots they take against the boys in blue and orange.
It also doesn’t hurt that should be All-Star starter Kevin Durant anchors the team with his 29.6 PPG average (2nd in the league only to Carmelo Anthony) and whose ability to take over during end-of-game situations proves why he was the best player in the 2007 draft class, and not Greg Oden. The “Durantula” and his supporting cast, which includes three more great college players who have only been out of school for a couple of years in Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green and James Harden (who comes off the bench, mind you), are going to be a threat in the league for years to come as long as the organization can keep this core group united. You throw a more-threatening center than Nenad Krstic onto this team with a few more years of experience, and you’ve got a group that won’t only contend for the playoffs, but could dominate in the Western Conference over the next decade.
That’s of course in an ideal world where players don’t leave teams over things like contract disputes. So, for now I’ll relish in the fact that I predicted this to be true, and so far it’s looking to be the case. They could give someone a scare in the playoffs. Watch out.
2.) Now, many NBA analysts wouldn’t have thought the idea of OKC contending for the playoffs to be all that farfetched, especially considering the revamping and aging of some of the Western Conference’s best teams. However, I can’t fathom that anyone would have picked the Memphis Grizzlies to be in contention this far into the season. I also would wager that the Charlotte Bobcats wouldn’t cross anyone’s mind except when it came time to fill out the Draft Lottery invitations. And yet, if the season ended today, Charlotte would be seeded above Dwayne Wade’s Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
To chock up Memphis’s sudden emergence as a playoff contender to the poor luck that has befallen some of the West’s upper-level teams in the form of injuries (such as Houston’s loss of Yao Ming for the season or New Orlean’s Chris Paul recently going down with a knee injury) would be an injustice. While it’s true that such things have cracked the door open a little wider for teams that previously struggled, the ability to win in the NBA takes more than just good luck. Houston has played exceptionally well considering the loss of Yao Ming and the apparent soured-relationship with Tracy McGrady, resulting in his only playing 6 games all season despite being active and able to go out on the court. Aaron Brooks has played out of his mind at the point, and if Yao hadn’t undergone reconstructive foot , the Rockets would be talked about in terms of championship contention instead of just vying for the precious last spot in the West, I’m sure of it. And don’t get me started on Portland – I’ll discuss them later on.
The Grizzlies’ young core of Rudy Gay, O.J.Mayo and Marc Gasol, along with All-Star forward Zach Randolph and guard Mike Conley (whose injuries have hindered his still-young career thus far), have gelled together and turned into a scary team to play if you’re a team that’s commonly thought of as a title contender. They defeated the Lakers on a night when Kobe surpassed Jerry West as the franchise’s all-time leading score. They defeated the Cavaliers in December when Conley, the unlikeliest among the starting five to take a final-shot, drove to the rim and sealed the deal on a 111-109 Memphis overtime win. They were struggling to reach .500 when they beat the Cavs. By the time they beat the Lakers a nearly two months later, they’re a playoff contender. It’s truly been a shock to witness this occur, especially with all the hoopla that happened with Iverson at the start of the season. It’s strange not being able to mock the Grizzlies anymore with Corey. It’s a good strange, though.
Now Charlotte to me, on paper, looks like a team that should still be contending for the number one draft-pick rather than sitting pretty in the Eastern Conference playoff race with a 24-23 record. They’ve got an all-star in Gerald Wallace, and for a few years he’s been playing a high level of basketball. But who’s left? An injured Tyson Chandler – an overrated center that Chris Paul made look better than he actually was, and Stephen Jackson, who has surprisingly done more good for the Bobcats than harm, a surprising feature given his destructive nature with the Warriors. None of the other players on the roster stand out in any special way, really. And yet, if they continue to at least play .500 ball the rest of the way until the end of the season, they could be looking at as high as a 5th seed in the playoffs. Larry Brown is a mystical being.
3.) I think the Eastern Conference playoff picture is (barring any major injury to an All-Star player or great contributor) set in stone except for the 8th spot. This is how I see things ending up. *The team’s current record as of this posting is listed beside their name – not their final record that will determine playoff seeding.
#1:
The Cleveland Cavaliers (39-11) – They’ll be the number one team in the East and as long as they keep playing at the level they currently are, in the entire league as well. The Shaq experiment was a little rocky at first but has since turned into what seems a success. They’re on a 9 game winning streak that includes a win against the Lakers without starting guard Mo Williams, who’s out for at least a month with a shoulder sprain. Delonte West went down during the Lakers game with a finger injury. Daniel “Boobie” Gibson has been doing a fine job starting at the point and has done well in Mo’s absence. LeBron has been LeBron and looks on pace to have another MVP Trophy to add to his shelf. The entire team is playing superbly, pleasing me personally of course, and has a legitimate chance to win it all.
Projection: Central Division Winner.#2:
The Atlanta Hawks (30-17) – I think the Hawks are among the most athletic teams in the Eastern conference, if not the most athletic one. They boast all-stars on their team in Al Horford and Joe Johnson. Forward Josh Smith should have been named an all-star and will surely use that to even further propel his team towards the top. They’ve swept the Celtics for the season and have played Cleveland close only to lose both times so far this season. In addition to that, their tendency to lose close games against inferior opponents and their inability to play anything resembling well against the Magic (they trail the season series 0-3) will prevent them from realistically securing the #1 seed.
Projection: Southeast Division Winner#3:
The Orlando Magic (33-16) – Dwight Howard is the league’s best center. Any team that has a dominating force such as his in the post will win games. Unfortunately for the Orlando Magic, winning games hasn’t been as blissful as it seemed last year. They rode a high going into the playoffs and to the NBA championship game that was the result of a high-velocity 3-point oriented offense blended with a stellar defensive effort that melded together. Over the summer, they decided that wasn’t enough and decided to trade away key role players on that Eastern Conference Champion team for an aging Vince Carter who has provided some heroics over the course of the season but nothing that a second-year Courtney Lee or back-up point guard Rafer Alston (whom I’m sure they missed when Jameer Nelson was out with injuries again this season) couldn’t have done. They screwed around with a chemistry I’m not sure they’ll be able to find again. Still, they got Dwight and will be at least be a lock to make it to the second-round.
Projection: Southeast Division Runner-Up.#4:
The Boston Celtics (30-16) – Age. Injuries. Both are contributors to Boston’s decline this year. As Rajon Rondo has been soaring to all-star status, the pieces around him are falling apart. Kevin Garnett was out for what seemed like forever with a knee injury. Paul Pierce is currently day-to-day with an ankle sprain. It’s the same core group of players that obliterated the Lakers en route to the franchise’s record 17th NBA championship title – but they don’t seem to have the same spirit that team did; they lack the mysticism, the lore that seemed to deem that team untouchable. The 2007-2008 Celtics knew they were going to win the NBA championship no matter what. The 2009-2010 rendition looks like they could be subject to a first-round upset.
Projection: Atlantic Division Winner.#5:
The Miami Heat (24-24) – If Dwayne Wade didn’t exist, I wouldn’t have any faith at all in the Heat making the playoffs at all. With Wade in the picture, they could easily surge into the fifth spot into the Easy and give Boston fits. Miami’s going to have to do some major work this summer I think if they want to keep Wade around – the way the team has performed this season doesn’t bode well for the organization retaining the league’s best shooting guard.
Projection: Southeast Division 3rd Place.#6:
The Chicago Bulls (23-23) – You could take everything I said about the Heat and replace the word “shooting guard” with “point guard” and “Dwayne Wade” with “Derrick Rose” and sum up most of what I feel about the Bulls. Part of me wants to say they’re actually a better team than the Heat and that Rose’s presence and Joakim Noah’s stellar performance at center this season could make them more likely to bolt to the 5th spot in the East (therefore setting up a rematch with Boston of possibly the greatest playoff series of all time that I’m sure the league would love – I would!), but I feel that Wade’s abilities at this point in time are more refined and will be the deciding factor.
Projection: Central Division Runner-up.#7:
The Charlotte Bobcats (24-23) – It’s still hard to believe that this team will more likely than not make the playoffs – and not as a last team to get in! Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson will lead the Bobcats to their first ever playoff berth and could give whoever they end up playing (in this scenario, the Hawks) some fits.
Projection: Southeast Division 4th place. #8:
The Milwaukee Bucks (21-26)/Toronto Raptors (26-23) – Both of these teams are streaky. The Raptors have an established All-Star in Chris Bosh and have been playing tremendous ball lately. But, it’s hard to think they couldn’t revert back to their losing ways after nights when they lose to the Pacers (a horrid team) by 15. The Bucks, on the other hand, have a great inside presence in Andrew Bogut but have suffered from the injury of Michael Redd and the declining (but still good, especially in rookie terms) performance of Brandon Jennings after his 55-point game. In the East, look for these two teams, or possibly one of these two and the Bobcats, to be the only teams struggling for the last spot in the East.
Projection: Bucks – Central Division 3rd Place; Raptors – Atlantic Division Runner-up.Notable teams missing:
The Philadelphia 76ers (16-31) – This team never looked like a playoff-contender this season at any point, but after nearly upsetting the Magic last year in the playoffs many pegged them as a dark-horse this season. The abandonment of the decent scoring point guard they had in Andre Miller (who’s helming the duct-taped ship in Portland, currently) is a move made in the off-season that turned out to be terrible, and the crazy retirement-not retirement that resulted in Allen Iverson coming back to the team has been the only noteworthy thing the 76ers have done all season. They could still perhaps make a dash for the 8th spot, but it’s tremendously unlikely.
The Detroit Pistons (16-31) – I called this one too, I’m pretty sure. The fall of Detroit has been swift and hard. The absence of Chauncey Billups since last season and the inability to re-sign Rasheed Wallace this past summer has killed this team that just a few years back won an NBA title. The big free agent signings of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva have so far not panned out as planned, and as a result, the Pistons will be in unfamiliar territory this summer: The NBA Draft Lottery.
4.) The Western Conference, on the other hand, appears as though it could still be wide-open. If you were to ask me, just from an eye-test and knowledge of recent NBA seasons, I would say that only three teams in the Western Conference are locks to make the playoffs this season: The Lakers, Nuggets and Trailblazers. What? One of those teams looks off, you say? Shouldn’t Dallas be there? I’ll attempt to justify my reasoning below in my projected playoff seeding for the Western Conference (which, as you’ll be able to tell, was a lot more difficult than the East’s)
#1: The Los Angeles Lakers (37-12) – You would think that Kobe Bryant’s Holly wood ballers would have been the easiest team in the West to seed. If I’d done this earlier in the season, that would have been correct. In recent weeks, however, they’ve struggled against lesser competition and many of the games they’ve won have been more due to Kobe Bryant willing the team to victory or hitting a game-winning jumper at the end. They lost to the Cavaliers, thought by many to be the best and deepest team in the league, horrendously at home on Christmas Day and couldn’t contain Cleveland at their place a couple of weeks ago, even though their starting point guard, Mo Williams, was out with an injury. They’ve lost to the Nuggets, who I personally think is the best team in the West when everyone’s healthy. However, Bryant’s outstanding ability to come through at the end of games and the Laker brand itself, I think, makes it hard to pick them here. I believe the team will eventually get out of the funk they’ve been in lately and will get set back on track for the #1 seed.
Projection: Pacific Division Winner. #2:
The Denver Nuggets (33-15) – As of late, the Nuggets have been pulling out wins against good teams without All-Star forward Carmelo Anthony in the line-up due to an ankle injury. All-Star Chauncey Billups is still playing at an exceptionally high level given his age, and Kenyon Martin has taken some of the scoring pressure off Anthony throughout the season and has stepped up in his absence. Center Nene Hilario, referred to usually as just Nene, brings an athletic look to the center position in Colorado. Chris “Birdman” Anderson brings an energy off the bench that is like that Anderson Varejao brings to the Cavaliers – it might not show up in the box score, but it’s fundamental to many of the games they’ve won and their continued success. The Denver have won games against the league’s top two teams record-wise, had their way with the Magic in their only meeting so far this season, and are a couple of missed buckets away from having the best record in the West so far. I believe the Nuggets are the most athletic team in the West and if they play up to their potential won’t have any problem making it to the Western Conference Championship game, at the very least.
Projection: Northwest Division Winner. #3:
The Portland Trailblazers (29-21) – As of tonight, the Trailblazers are 3rd in the Northwest Division and sit at 6th in the Western Conference playoff standings. Of course, that doesn’t mean anything because they could just as easily be up to 4th by the end of the night. Over the past decade the Western Conference has been dominant when it comes to depth, but this year it’s absurd. There are only 3 teams that won’t be contending for the playoffs. The Trailblazers, given their insane amount of injuries to thought-to-be vital players on the roster, there should be 4. They’re definitely the scrappiest team in the league. They’ve come together with a roster that starts center Juwan Howard, the last remaining player in the NBA of Michigan University’s “Fab Five”, due to injuries to both Greg Oden and Joey Przybilla, the players on the depth chart ahead of him. He was drafted by the Wizards when they were still called the Bullets. And yet, he’s become an essential piece to what has become a make-shift Portland team. They continue to win games despite injuries to their star #1 draft pick (Oden), Przybilla, All-Star shooting guard Brandon Roy, role-player Travis Outlaw, and even their head coach Nate McMillan! I believe in the ‘Blazers – they might not actually finish this high, but there’s no way you can tell me they won’t be in contention for home-court advantage in the first round once they recover completely from injuries after what they’ve been doing as of late with the pieces they have. A completely healthy Portland team could be monstrous.
Projection: Northwest Division Runner-up. #4:
The Dallas Mavericks (30-18) – Judging from what has happened this far in the season, seeds three through eight in the Western Conference could end up being any team aside from the Minnesota Timberwolves, Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings. Although, even the Kings could get on a little run and be back in contention if some more bad luck befalls the 12 teams that will be fighting to get in. All that said, the Nowitzki-led Mavericks look to be in pretty good shape, and are the safest aside from whom I see as the top three. The problem with the Mavericks is that it seems to me that Nowitzki is the only legitimate scoring threat on the team most nights. Josh Howard is capable of putting up great numbers, but can be inconsistent and has a questionable demeanor at times. Jason Kidd isn’t the Jason Kidd of old – not to say he still isn’t a terrific passer (he’s one of the best) – but he’s no longer the triple-double threat he once was. Maybe it’s because I haven’t seen much of the Mavericks this year because I have no interest in the team that I figure they’ll struggle going down the stretch – who knows? It could also be the memory of them choking in the playoffs a couple of years ago against the Warriors that aided in me falling in love with the NBA, or falling prey to Dwayne Wade the year before that in the Finals. It seems like that has come to define this team, which is unfortunate for Mark Cuban (their owner), because I believe he genuinely cares about his team performing well and shaking that image off.
Projection: Southwest Division Winner. #5:
The Oklahoma City Thunder (27-21) – I’ll confess this is partly because I have rooting interest in the team and picked them as a potential underdog in the West before the season started, but this is a legit possibility. They’ve got a youthful core, tons of athleticism and a one of the league’s premier prime-time performers in Kevin Durant – the Thunder could still theoretically win their division. However, I don’t see them overtaking the Nuggets this season, but I do predict that Utah will falter down the stretch and the Thunder will have to duke it out with the Trailblazers (who were seen as the “trendy youngsters” in recent years themselves) for the 2nd spot in their division. I give the slight edge to Portland based on experience only.
Projection: Northwest Division 3rd place. #6:
The San Antonio Spurs (27-19) – Tony Parker’s injury could keep this team from winning the division, or I could see them overtaking Dallas easily for the 4th or 3rd spot in the West. I don’t like the Spurs, everyone knows that. I like their uniforms, I like Tim Duncan, I even like their coach – but I’ve been sour with them ever since the 2007 Finals when they dismantled the Cavaliers. All that said though, the Spurs are like the Texas-rendition of the Boston in the sense that they’re an aging group of players that consistently struggle with injuries and the like. Tim Duncan is a hell of a player though. Throughout his career he’s been a silent All-Star, and this year that hasn’t changed. He won’t let them miss the playoffs.
Projection: Southwest Division Runner-up. #7:
The Memphis Grizzlies (26-22) – They’re the hottest team in the league right now besides the Cavaliers. They’ve beaten teams they shouldn’t have beaten and possess the same kind of youthful nature the Thunder have. I want to see this happen. The Grizzlies have been the butt of so many jokes I’ve shared with Corey Howell . The franchise has never been relevant really – here’s hoping Huntington, WV native O.J. Mayo can help make it happen.
Projection: Southwest Division 3rd Place. #8:
The Houston Rockets (26-22)/The Utah Jazz (29-18)/The Phoenix Suns (29-21) – The Rockets are somewhat like Portland-lite. They too have faced some injury issues (though nowhere near the amount the Trailblazers have faced) and rely on a few established young players to get the job done. The Jazz, on the other hand, actually are second in their division (right behind the Nuggets), but that division is so competitive that it’s hard to imagine 4 teams getting in due solely to them beating up on each other. The Suns are in the best shape to sneak into the playoffs among the 3, with the Lakers being the only other genuinely good team in their division, but their inability to play defense for 48 minutes could, as it always is, be their undoing.
Projection: Rockets - Southwest Division 4th Place; Jazz - Northwest Division 4th Place; Suns - Pacific Division Runner-up.Notable teams missing:
The New Orleans Hornets (26-22) – The Hornets were a great feel-good story a couple years back and Chris Paul is the league’s greatest point guard. That’s the problem – Paul is out for at least a month and it’s that month that will likely cause New Orleans’ recent push for the playoffs to drop-off significantly. David West has also been involved in trade-talks lately, giving the impression that New Orleans was going to be in a “whole-sale” mindset anyway in order to cut costs for the upcoming free agent summer.
The Los Angeles Clippers (21-27) – The Clippers, on the other hand, were more of a “Hey, they could maybe get in!”-team based on some hot stretches recently and the injuries that have crippled some of the other teams in the West. They’ve still got a good group of players, and if Blake Griffin (the number one overall pick) hadn’t went down with a season-ending knee-injury, things could have been different for this Clippers team. They’ll be more of a threat next year for sure if Griffin recovers on schedule and stays healthy.
And so, there are my NBA Playoff predictions. Take them with a grain of salt, because I’m no expert and the league truly is unpredictable in some ways. You know Kobe’s gonna get his 30 points a night if he wants it, that LeBron’s going to posterize somebody on the other team if he so desires, and that the Nets are going to lose.
You can’t predict that Memphis was going to stun the both the Lakers and the Cavaliers in with 2-point victories over each.
You can’t predict that a rookie who played in Europe for a year instead of going to college was going to drop 55 points on the Warriors weeks into the season.
You can’t predict that Larry Brown would be coaching the 13,892nd team of his career to their first-playoff berth in their history.
The NBA: Where Amazing Happens. That’s the league’s mantra.
Amazing will happen. You just can’t predict what it will look like.
